Possible Funding Options and Reforms for Ducey’s Teacher Pay Plan

It has been a week since Governor Ducey announced his “20 by 20” plan for Arizona teachers, and suffice to say there are more questions than answers on the long-term financial sustainability of the proposal. According to the latest JLBC estimates, if the Governor’s plan was implemented to increase teacher pay (which likely won’t happen, since local districts determine teacher pay) and fully fund Additional Assistance, Arizona would be running a structural deficit of $200 Million dollars by 2021.

The Governor’s solution to this problem has been to increase the economic revenue projections for the State above the JLBC estimate and bank on continued caseload reductions at AHCCCS (Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System.) Governor Ducey could be right, but this is the same exact mistake that was made 10 years ago that led to billion-dollar deficits and a decade of budget turmoil. Additionally, this doesn’t take into account another recession that is likely to occur in the next couple of years.

Rather than rely on a rosy economic outlook, policymakers should evaluate funding alternatives, budget cuts and modifications to the Governor’s education plan that would avoid putting Arizona in another fiscal crisis. Additionally, lawmakers would be remiss to pass on another opportunity to tie education policy reforms with new increases in K-12 funding.

Some possible funding options and reforms include:

  • Eliminate the Arizona Competes Fund (Budget Savings–$11.5 Million)—The Arizona Commerce Authority Currently receives $21.8 Million in total funding from the state general fund, with $11.5 Million earmarked for the Competes Fund. As one of the most unnecessary and useless expenditures in the state budget, the Competes Fund would only be missed by political insiders and special interests that have access to the grants and subsidies handed out by the Commerce Authority. This is a spending cut that most taxpayers would support.
  • Cut University Bonding package by 50% (Budget Savings–$13.5 Million)—Last year the legislature approved a measure to allow Universities to bond for as much as $1 Billion for new capital facilities and other projects. It was always questionable whether our three state Universities needed a billion dollars for new buildings, especially since they have secretly been in the property tax abatement business for several years without notifying lawmakers. Modestly reducing their bonding capacity to $500 Million isn’t unreasonable and wouldn’t impact their current level of operational funding.
  • Reduce Urban Revenue Sharing with Cities by 10 percent (Budget Savings–$120 Million.)—Currently Arizona tax revenue from income and sales is shared with local municipalities, with approximately $1.2 Billion being diverted from the state general fund. It is one of the most generous revenue sharing models in the country, and is questionable policy as it removes accountability at the local level. And as long as cities believe that it makes sense to throw away over $100 Million a year on utterly wasteful projects such as light rail, it is clear that this is a cut that wouldn’t be missed.
  • Reduce the K-12 teacher funding increase to 10 percent by 2019 (Cost Savings–$225 Million)—Though the Governor seems stuck on the 20 by 20 plan, lawmakers would be wise to instead approve a 10 percent increase and wait to see if the revenues materialize to justify a larger amount. A 10 percent increase is doable under the JLBC budget projections and would provide the capacity to substantially increase teacher pay at the local level. According to the Tax Research Association, Arizona is currently 40th in teacher pay in the US when adjusted for cost of living. If school boards decide to use the additional funding to solely pay for teacher pay raises, Arizona would move up to 22nd in the nation. This would be a major step in the right direction while keeping Arizona on a sound fiscal trajectory.
  • Continue moving toward backpack funding and other school finance reforms—If parents and students are to see a more fair and equitable funding structure in Arizona, then reforms are needed to fix Arizona’s broken funding structure and do a better job of tying K-12 funding to students. Though advocates, unions and the media are more than happy to point all the fingers at the legislature and Governor for low teacher pay, local school boards and administrators continue to escape all accountability. It isn’t right that mismanaged and poor performing districts will be equally rewarded as the responsible schools that have done a good job getting money in the classroom. Lawmakers must look at every proposal to increase funding as an opportunity to empower high-performing schools and districts and stop protecting the bad actors in the school finance formula.

Income Tax Hikes to Fund Teacher Pay Raise?

Late last week the simmering dispute over teacher pay finally boiled over, and now the legislature and Governor Ducey are racing to meet the demands of angry educators. On Thursday, the Governor held a press conference announcing his commitment to fund a 20 percent pay raise for all teachers, to be implemented over two years.

The good news is that the Governor remains committed to raising teacher pay without raising taxes. The downside is that his administration may be relying on unrealistic revenue projections over the next couple of years, which if overstated could lead to a new budget deficit for Arizona. After fixing the structural deficit in his first year, it would be a major disappointment if his new proposal puts Arizona back in the same hole that Ducey inherited in 2015.

The Governor’s plan isn’t the only proposal circling the halls at the capitol. A small group of Republican lawmakers were pitching their own teacher pay plan, with one big difference—the 20 percent raise would be paid for primarily through middle-class income tax increases and an “undisclosed” tax hike in 2020.

Notwithstanding the fact that any spending plan that relies on mystery tax increases in the future isn’t a real plan, it is startling that some lawmakers support the idea to use tax conformity dollars generated through federal tax reform to pay for higher teacher salaries. Make no mistake, any revenue kept by the legislature as a result of tax conformity is an income tax increase.

Earlier this session a coalition of organizations sent a letter to the legislature and the Governor urging our elected leaders to return to the taxpayers any additional revenue generated by the State as a result of Federal tax reform.  Currently the Department of Revenue and JLBC have estimated that individual taxpayers will pay between $175 to $235 Million more in individual income taxes if action is not taken by lawmakers.

Despite the wishes of politicians, this is not new revenue generated by Jack’s magic beans. This is a looming tax hike that could undo the benefits of federal tax reform if not properly addressed.

If policy makers want to implement a 20 percent teacher pay raise, they should do it through other spending cuts and reasonable projections in future revenue. And if lawmakers do want to raise taxes to increase teacher pay, then they should at least be transparent in their actions and not hide their tax increase proposals in the shadows of income tax conformity.

Maricopa County Community College District Board Streamlines Faculty Benefits Negotiation Process

In a historic vote, the Board for the Maricopa County Community College District voted to end “meet and confer” process at their meeting in February.  Meet and Confer is a form of collective bargaining by which the district’s faculty association has input into faculty benefits such salary schedules, code of ethics, and workload.

The decision was opposed by the faculty association and allies in organized labor and resulted in a frivolous lawsuit claiming damages in excess of $850,000. Lest anyone confuse the faculty board’s motivation with benevolent concern with ensuring the more than 1,400 full-time faculty members of the district get a fair shake – it is important to note that each of the four executive members are claiming $150,000 worth of personal damages for each of them.  The other $250,000 are claimed on behalf of the association which pays the board to negotiate on behalf of its members.  That’s a lot of upside for association board members.  It is less clear how the rest of the 1,404 faculty members benefit.

Although the faculty association isn’t an officially recognized union, their actions leave hardly any room for distinction.  When the district board was discussing the policy change as a way to streamline faculty policy-making and save valuable county resources – the association immediately ginned up opposition by spreading fears of the worst-case scenarios.  Which was a convenient ploy to boost association membership – and dues.

A bureaucratic and “labor-intensive” process like meet and confer wastes time, money and resources – all of which could be directed into better compensation for faculty members who deserve it. Many communities and political subdivisions have eliminated meet and confer, and the alternative has proved to be far superior.

Individual faculty members communicate their individual concerns, needs, and desires to their management team.  Under this more tailored approach of employer-employee negotiations, compensation is based upon the merit and accomplishments of individual faculty members, not from the collective bargaining of a few well-compensated representatives who must negotiate for the lowest common denominator.

At the end of the day the board members are the elected representatives of the people and all college policy decisions are their responsibility.  They must balance the use of taxpayer dollars with the optimization of educational outcomes.  Eliminating meet and confer is a proven, common-sense policy decision that will better serve students, faculty, and taxpayers alike.

SB 1146 Would Allow Unelected Bureaucrats to Raise Your Taxes

What is worse than your elected legislators voting for a tax increase?  Your elected legislators voting to allow an unelected bureaucrat to raise your taxes.

SB 1146 and HB 2166 would do just that.  Both bills would grant the Director of Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) the authority to charge any Highway Safety Fee rate they desire as well as set the initial percentage rate of the base retail value of a vehicle that will be used to assess the car owner’s VLT.

As it relates to the Highway Safety Fee, the only ostensible constraint in the proposed legislation is the requirement that the Highway Safety Fee funds 110 percent of the Department of Public Safety’s highway patrol’s fiscal budget, minus any monies left in the fund that exceed 10 percent of the prior year’s fees.   In other words, the fee must directly and fully fund DPS.  However, this is not how the government appropriation process works or should work.

There is a good reason we don’t let the head government bureaucrat decide how much money they need to operate and then tell the tax payers to fork over the money.  Instead, our system has representatives of the taxpayer determine priorities for funding and evaluate what the taxpayer base can ultimately afford and require the government to conform to the funds available.  This proposal is an inversion of this process and circumvents these safeguards to promote spending restraint and ensure the taxpayers’ representatives are active agents in determining spending priorities.

This means depending on who is in political power as Governor, they could use their administrative appointment authority to push their policy agenda, game the State’s VLT and unilaterally pick winners and losers.  They could choose to charge more VLT for “gas-guzzling” suburbans that would disproportionally harm large families.  Or they could charge more VLT for non-American made cars or charge no VLT for two-door convertibles.  There is no requirement in the legislation to ensure the registration fee is uniform among taxpayers.

The broad support for this type of legislative gimmickry is baffling.  For years lawmakers have complained of too much power vested in the executive branch, yet here is a bill that willingly surrenders their constitutional taxing authority to the Governor.Shockingly this bill has generated a good deal of support among legislative members.  SB 1146 received a unanimous vote from the members of the transportation committee and HB 2166 sailed through its committee with a vote of 6-1 and passed the House with a floor vote of 35 Ayes and 24 Nays.

Additionally, it is clear that both bills are designed to sidestep Prop 108, which requires a 2/3 vote in each legislative body to approve a tax increase.  If lawmakers believe that this new registration fee is a good idea, they should identify and debate what that amount should be and set that amount in statute.  But many lawmakers want to disguise the fact that they are supporting a tax increase, so bad public policy is what taxpayers get stuck with.

The only question now is how and when this tactic will be used next. Perhaps we should allow the director of Department of Revenue to set our income tax rates? An idea that would have been considered laughable a few year ago is now a real threat to Arizona taxpayers.

It would seem many of our elected leaders have accepted the premise that the ends justify the means.  They so desperately want to put more money into infrastructure and roads, they care little about how it is ultimately accomplished.  Because raising taxes is difficult both politically and process-wise, this tactic allows them to side step the process to raise taxes and avoid political accountability.

But lawmakers shouldn’t think they are fooling anyone.  They may think this is a clever way to not have to answer to taxpayers about a tax increase.  But they would be wrong.

SB 1147 Trojan Horse to Spend Billions More on Light Rail Boondoggle

For years advocates for light rail have been trying to convince the legislature to allow Maricopa County to extend the 1/2 cent transportation sales tax (currently set to expire in 2025) to include billions more for light rail. They know that they can’t pass light rail by itself, so they have been looking for ways to sneak it by lawmakers by tying it to other more popular transportation projects.

Their solution is SB 1147, a poorly crafted transportation omnibus bill that would eliminate the statutory spending caps on how much money can go toward light rail and other wasteful transit projects. The bill would also remove the requirements that funding go toward freeways and other regional roads, unnecessarily create duplicative and confusing new statutes for rural counties and allow new tax hikes to be considered on off-cycle election dates that are notorious for low voter turnout.

The evidence that light rail and similar fixed line transit is a bad deal for taxpayers is overwhelming. In 2017, the Free Enterprise Club published a study on the future of transportation policy in Maricopa County and the value of light rail in the Phoenix Metro Area. The conclusion was that light rail is a bad deal for taxpayers, commuters, non-politically connected landowners and anyone else that relies on the current bus transit system. Additionally, a cursory review of the wild-eyed economic development claims being made by proponents of rail are easily disproven as well.

The most critical facts when considering light rail include:

  • Light rail will NOT reduce traffic congestion–it will INCREASE traffic congestion

A common myth pushed by proponents of light rail is that it will help in getting people off the roads and into public transit. The fact is that light rail will increase traffic congestion, and there are a couple of reasons for this. First, the only way to accommodate the new rail line will be to remove street lanes currently used by automobiles. And since street lanes can move more traffic per hour than light rail, congestion will be greater along the line. Secondly, since the rail line is moving at street grade, it will have to receive priority at every traffic light. This will disrupt signal coordination systems, spreading the disruption well beyond the light rail intersections. That is why every independent traffic analysis that has been done concludes that light rail increases traffic congestion.

  • Light rail will NOT increase transit ridership and will HURT bus ridership

Another argument made by the light rail lobby is that building light rail will increase transit ridership. The fact is most light rail passengers are either individuals who already use transit or passengers who were forced onto light rail when existing bus service along the rail line was eliminated. Additionally, since rail costs substantially more to operate than buses, over time light rail will crowd out bus service and will result in a reduction of bus lines in the Phoenix metro area.

This is not speculation—this exact scenario has played out in every city that has built light rail. For proof, here is a chart showing transit ridership in the Phoenix metro area since 2000, courtesy of Valley Metro:

As can be seen by the chart, transit ridership was increasing steadily from 2000 to 2008, prior to light rail opening. After light rail opened, bus ridership began to plummet and is now at levels not seen since 2003. Even more troubling, after a decade of growth annual transit ridership has been in decline.  The 2017 figures were just released and annual transit ridership is now LOWER than when light rail opened in 2009.

  • The Economic Development Claims are False

Knowing that light rail cannot be defended for reducing congestion or increasing transit ridership, advocates usually pivot to the claim that rail should be built since it promotes economic development.  This claim is easily disproven as well. After a careful analysis of the figures provided by Valley Metro, the Club proved that most of the economic development credited to light rail was either “planned or committed” development, projects that had nothing to do with rail (like the Phoenix Convention Center) or were projects that never occurred.

After discrediting their figures in 2015, Valley Metro released a new analysis, now claiming that billions in constructed projects have occurred because of light rail. How did they reach this conclusion? Valley Metro is now assuming that light rail is responsible for ALL economic development that occurs within 1/2 mile of the rail line. Since the rail line is 26 miles long, that means they are including 26 SQUARE MILES within their analysis. The idea that light rail is responsible for all economic development in an area the size of Queen Creek is laughable.

  • SB 1147 Ignores the Blossoming Self-Driving Transportation Revolution in our own Backyard

The final nail in the coffin for light rail is that it is more likely than not that drastic advancements in autonomous vehicles will render the service useless and unused. Thanks to Governor Ducey, Arizona has become a leader in promoting and developing self-driving technology, and it is anticipated that such cars will be available to the public in the next five years. The idea that we are going to commit billions to human-operated, fixed line rail through 2045 when the technology will be beyond obsolete would be a huge mistake.

If lawmakers believe there is a need to update our existing transportation statutes or even consider extending the Maricopa County transportation tax, policy makers should make sure that the money is used on productive transportation projects that include plenty of transparency and oversight. Without drastic changes to SB 1147, the bill will remain a train wreck for taxpayers.