Just like the rest of the country, Arizona residents have since mid-March hunkered down, self-isolated and followed the advice of medical experts and our political leaders to stop the spread of Coronavirus. The rationale provided to us was that if extreme actions were not taken, hundreds of thousands of people in the Grand Canyon state would perish. Hospitals would be overrun. It might be as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918.
How do we know Covid-19 might be this horrific? Whenever this question was asked, defenders of the shutdown immediately pointed to the various models proving their case. Two in particular were cited the most—IHME and CovidActNow. Both produced dire forecasts for Arizona and both recommended draconian mitigation strategies. Both have proven to be wildly wrong.
The IHME Model
Designed at the University of Washington, the IHME model has been the most frequently cited the last 3 weeks and was the foundation for the nationwide projections developed by the Trump Administration.
On April 1st, IHME predicted dark days for Arizona. IHME forecasted that by April 15th over 2,500 beds would be needed and that Arizona would be at its ICU and ventilator capacity. At our peak on April 27th, Arizona would have 4,000 hospitalized Covid-19 patients and a ICU shortage of nearly 100 beds. Over 1,300 would be dead by August 1st.
CovidActNow
Founded and developed by four volunteers with very questionable credentials, CovidActNow became a frequently utilized source for politicians and governmental entities early on during the pandemic. In Arizona, CovidActNow was the primary model used in March by the University of Arizona College of Public Health to develop their pandemic response recommendations, which were cited by the media and referenced by politicians throughout the state.
On April 1st CovidActNow had concluded that Governor Ducey’s shelter-at-home policy was far too lax and that a much stricter statewide lockdown was necessary:
Without a “strict” stay-at-home policy, CovidActNow declared that Arizona on April 15 would have nearly 1,500 hospitalized, a hospitalization peak of 40,000 by June, and 28,000 dead by mid-summer.
Models vs. Reality
It is embarrassing how poorly both of these models performed compared to reality. As of today (April 15), Arizona has fewer than 500 Covid-19 patients hospitalized and around 100 admitted to ICU, a fraction of the predicted amount. Ventilator use is in decline and the state has already reduced their federal ventilator request from 5,000 to 500.
Fatalities are lagging behind the IHME model and will never approach the laughable figure cited by CovidActNow. There has been no Coronavirus hospital crunch. In fact it has been just the opposite–healthcare workers have been furloughed due to all of the empty hospital beds.
The excuses to explain away the modeling errors have been coming as fast as the downward revisions being made to both forecasts. Defenders of the modeling claim that the lower projections only prove that the current policies are working and thus fewer deaths and hospitalizations have been the result. The flaw with this argument is that both models as of April 1 were based on the mitigation efforts that are in effect today. This argument is simply an attempt to move the goal posts and avoid any discussion about why the models missed so badly.
Others have suggested that it is not really the fault of the modeler’s–Covid-19 projections are difficult and that a lack of data and changing assumptions hampered their effectiveness. These are all valid points, except that none of these issues were ever brought up when the public was being sold on their reliability and used as the justification for a nationwide shutdown of the economy.
Some are even saying that it doesn’t really matter that the models were wrong and that everyone should just be thankful that it is not as bad as they thought. This argument is not only wrong, but offensive. Thousands of people have lost their jobs, their livelihoods, and some will lose their lives because of the actions taken based on these models. If the goal is to completely erode all public trust and credibility in our institutions, this is the quickest way to do it.
Moving Forward
Unfortunately, what has transpired up to this point cannot be undone. Mistakes were made, yet rather than dwelling on them we need to start working toward solutions that address our overreaction.
The top priority should be to reopen Arizona in a safe and healthy way. Governor Ducey has announced that he is developing a plan to open up the economy; our hope is that it coincides with the expiration of the existing stay-at-home order on April 30th (if not sooner).
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Arizona should not take any precautions or that there won’t be certain restrictions when the shutdown ends. The models were useless, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have data showing that Covid-19 is a real danger to certain segments of the population (predominantly seniors and those with chronic illness). The Club believes a solution exists somewhere between doing nothing and the current draconian shutdown.
The other lesson that should be learned is a healthy amount of skepticism when politicians start using forecast modeling as their justification for their radical policy prescriptions. The public might have been fooled this time by the so-called experts and their doomsday modeling, let’s just make sure it doesn’t happen again.
When the Covid-19 pandemic hit the US in early March, it
became evident that the government lacked the capability, efficiency and nimbleness
to effectively contain the spread. Critical measures such as developing
accessible and reliable testing turned into a bureaucratic
nightmare, and a lack of critical life saving medical supplies and
infrastructure threatened to overwhelm our medical professional heroes on the
front lines trying to save lives.
Thankfully and in the true American spirit, the private
sector is coming to the rescue. Businesses large and small, entrepreneurs and
citizens have mobilized throughout the country to fight the pandemic.
In Arizona the story is no different. We are fortunate that
so many have been willing to step up to the plate and deserve recognition for
their efforts. Here is a list of some of the businesses working to fight
Covid-19:
Arizona Cardinals President Michael Bidwill
donated $1 Million to the Coronavirus Relief Fund, which will go toward PPE for
hospitals, food banks and provide technology to disadvantaged students needing
to transition to online learning.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have
donated over $1 Million to numerous charities to provide food, support for
children of healthcare workers and PPE for medical professionals.
Depcom Power located in Scottsdale donated
10,000 surgical masks, 10,000 N95 masks and over $225,000 toward Coronavirus
relief efforts.
Arizona Based Brooklyn Bedding has
repurposed their facilities to make hospital beds during the pandemic.
Honeywell is ramping
up their Phoenix facility and is hiring 500 people to produce N95 masks and
other protective gear.
Quick Quack car was is providing unlimited
car washes to all health care professionals.
Several hotels in the Phoenix area are providing
rooms free
of charge to medical professionals.
We acknowledge that this is not an exhaustive list, so feel
free to email the Arizona Free Enterprise Club at info@azfree.org and let us know of other
Arizona companies and individuals that deserve recognition for pledging their
time, energy and resources to the Coronavirus effort.
In an effort to save their failing ballot measure campaigns,
a coalition of liberal organizations have gone to state
and federal court to be granted the ability to collect initiative signatures
online. Among the groups looking to change the signature collection process are
proposals to double the state income tax, increase taxpayer funding for
political campaigns, enact same day voter registration on election day and roll
back school choice options for parents and students.
Their main argument is that the Covid-19 pandemic was an
unforeseen circumstance that requires special relief and that since online
signature collection is allowed for candidates, a similar process must be
provided for ballot measures as well. Neither argument holds merit and should
be rejected by the court.
Their lawsuits assert that under the current social
distancing/shelter-in-place requirements, it is not possible for them to safely
acquire the necessary signatures prior to the filing deadline in July. That may
or may not be true, but if lack of time is truly an issue that is a problem that
they created for themselves.
No one disputes that collecting the minimum signatures
required to qualify for the ballot is a tall task (237,645 for statutory
measures, 356,467 for constitutional changes), which is why the constitution
provides 20 months to anyone looking to submit an initiative to the ballot. That is more than enough time to gather signatures
and to plan for any unforeseen circumstance, including a pandemic.
Instead, most of these groups decided to wait until this
spring to go the streets, ignoring the risk associated with such an approach.
The court should not bail them out for choosing not to use the lengthy
collection timeframes afforded to them under current law.
The other obvious problem with their request is that online
signature collection for initiatives would violate the state constitution. While plaintiffs and supporters of an online
signature platform frequently cite that candidates can collect their signatures
online, they ignore the fact that Article
4, Section 1 of Arizona’s constitution prescribes the signature collection
process for ballot measures.
Specifically, the constitution requires that all signatures
collected must be “attached to full and correct copy” of the measure, that
every sheet is “verified by the affidavit of the person” circulating the
petition, and that all signatures collected are “signed in the presence of an
affiant.” For the court to allow such a process to occur would require a
complete rewrite of the constitutional framework for initiatives that was drafted
by our state founders.
Hearings on both cases are scheduled to be heard next week.
Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who likely supports all of the liberal
ballot measures being proposed, announced
that she would not defend the law and is ready and willing to create an online
process for ballot measures.
Thankfully the legislature decided to step in and intervene
to defend our election laws against this frivolous lawsuit. Additionally,
Governor Ducey came out strongly
against the suit and made it clear that his office would not use any of his
emergency powers during the pandemic to provide relief. So now it is up to the
courts to decide whether pandemics can be used as an excuse to ignore the rule
of law.
It is difficult amid the chaos
and unpredictability surrounding our Country’s new COVID-19 reality to think
about what life will look like when this crisis subsides. Yet it is during the most difficult of challenges
when nations decide if they will surrender their fundamental
values in exchange for the promise of security.
Whether our leaders argue that
drastic times call for drastic measures, the ends justify the means, or promise
that everything will go back to normal after the crisis abates – it is
imperative that there are voices questioning, “what will our Republic look like
after the storm passes?”
Afterall, as reasonable or
necessary as some measures appear to a fearful populace, many in our ruling
class want to make sure to not let a good crisis go to waste.
The New York
Times recently highlighted several
chilling examples of major constitutional and human rights violations being
adopted in democratic nations with lightning speed and little resistance:
Right to Privacy – Infringement Through
Draconian Surveillance: In Israel the Prime Minister has authorized
tracking citizens through cellphone data they developed for counterterrorism
efforts. They are tracing citizens’ every movements and can even throw people
in prison for up to six months for defying isolation orders.
Right to Access the Ballot Box: Fair and
free elections are a cornerstone of any democratic republic. The “interim President” of Bolivia has
suspended their presidential election, unilaterally seizing a longer term and
denying citizens a basic right to choose their leader. Hungary’s Prime Minister has legislation
drafted that is likely to be passed which among many infringements also
includes the ability for him to suspend all elections and referendums. How his government ever peacefully wrest this
power away from him again is left unanswered in the legislative package.
Freedom of the Press and Speech: Several countries are violating
basic free speech rights and persecuting journalists that publish “dissenting”
or “false” information contrary to the government. Hungary again is an offender, allowing the
public prosecutor to imprison people for up to five years for disseminating
what they consider false information.
Right to Assembly: Our
friends overseas in Great Britain sprinted out legislation that allows their
ministries to ban pubic gatherings with little oversight as well as potentially
detain and isolate people indefinitely. In
the United States, democrats pushed hard to include language in the
COVID-19 relief package that would force non-profits and charitable
organizations to disclose
their donors, a practice that has been ruled unconstitutional
by the US Supreme court in NAACP VS
Alabama.
Right to a Speedy Trial and Habeas Corpus: Israel
Prime Minister Netanyahu has shut down
courts supposedly in the name of public health. It also conveniently serves his own interests
as he was scheduled to stand trial for corruption charges. The United
States’ Department of Justice has tried similarly dangerous
tactics, requesting Congress give them the authority to indefinitely detain
someone during an emergency as well as suspend court proceedings pre and post
arrest and trial.
These infringements are hitting
close to home in Arizona. Shortly after
the crisis began, several mayors unilaterally declared a state of emergency
without notifying Governor Ducey or their fellow council members. Some used
these powers to close businesses and limit hours, often with no consideration
with how disruptive it would be for employers to comply with a patchwork of
restrictions varying city to city.
Even after Governor Ducey wisely
stepped in and established a uniform policy for the entire state, Coral Evans
of Flagstaff has willfully and publicly defied
state law. She has unilaterally
closed city salons and similar services in obvious defiance of the Governor’s
Executive Order which preempts cities from employing more restrictive orders
than outlined by his administration.
The bottom line is that citizens need
to keep a close eye on the trade-offs government officials will be asking us to
make. The fearmongering being stoked by
some politicians should be looked upon with suspicion, especially when their
solutions involve long term power grabs, endless bailouts or indefinite
shutdown orders. As scary as Coronavirus may be, ceding our rights and freedoms
to a permanent police state is a much bigger threat.
Entering the second week of forced closures and social distancing to mitigate the spread of Coronavirus, Arizona small business owners and employers are doing their best to cope with the economic shutdown. It appears most in Arizona are following the restrictions enacted by State and local government and, in some cases, sacrificing their lively hoods in the hopes that this will stop the spread and save lives.
Unfortunately, many employers and employees will not survive much longer under the current shutdown. Over 3.3 Million people have already filed for unemployment, a catastrophic figure that will continue to rise over the next couple of weeks. We are reaching the point that a serious discussion needs to occur on how and when we reopen our economy in a safe and practical way.
Despite what some have suggested, having a discussion on the dangers of a long-term economic shutdown is not immoral or some ploy by selfish corporations or the rich wanting people to die in the pursuit of money. The truth needs to be said: if a shutdown continues much longer the US economy will descend into a depression that will threaten every facet of our lives and bring immeasurable pain, suffering and death to countless Americans.
The damage will be permanent and
it will affect everyone. Thousands of businesses will be gone. Tens of Millions
unemployed, many of which that were living paycheck to paycheck. Life savings
wiped out. Supply chain disruptions and
rationing of basic goods and essential services. Widespread hunger and
homelessness. Increases in suicide
and social disorder as local and state governments buckle from a collapsing tax
base.
And anyone that thinks that the Federal
government can step in and provide for the masses during a shutdown, think
again. For some perspective, Congress is close to
passing a $6 Trillion Dollar Coronavirus aid package, $4 Trillion
of which will be liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve. This is an obscene
amount of money, much larger than any spending bill passed in US history. Yet
that amount equals roughly
only 3 Months of US GDP. Suffice to say, if our economy remains in hibernation
for too long it will be the Federal Government in need of a bailout.
Some of our elected leaders appear to understand this, despite the insane pressure from various groups to ignore all economic consequences for their actions. Governor Ducey has taken reasonable steps to try to balance concerns between mitigating the epidemic and our economic survival. His executive order provided broad guidelines to allow some businesses to safely operate while working with Hospitals and medical professionals to ramp up for any potential outbreaks. His order also stopped local governments from setting up their own lockdown restrictions, a much needed intervention to prevent a patchwork of different social distancing standards throughout the state that would have been impossible for businesses to comply with.
Unfortunately, some politicians are
using the crisis to sow panic and fear throughout the state for political
purposes. The biggest offender is Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Earlier this week she
partnered with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi to block the Coronavirus relief
package in an attempt
to lard it up with unrelated liberal policies. Now there are
reports that she is holding
discussions with business leaders in the state and providing
them with apocalyptic scenarios about having to accept another great
depression.
Putting our country into a depression
is no way to handle any epidemic and will only make the situation worse. South
Korea has contained the outbreak and they did this without
any widespread lockdown. There is no reason that the US cannot do
the same.
President Trump is right. We need
to start
thinking about when we start working again. A goal of Easter may be
ambitious, but that should be a date political leaders in Arizona strive for to
start opening up our economy. Arizona will prevail in this fight, but only if
we ensure that we don’t destroy the economy in the process.
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