Key Arizona Propositions to Support

by | Nov 2, 2010 | News and Updates, Uncategorized

Prop. 106 – Health Care Freedom – YES
Protects right to obtain the health care of your choice and prohibits federal government from levying fines for not participating in federal health care system

Prop. 107 – Ending racial quotas – YES

Prop. 113 – Right to a Secret Ballot – YES
Protects the right to a secret ballot when workers vote whether to form a union

Prop. 302 – YES
Would divert funds currently directed to early childhood education program to state general fund to help address $1.7 billion budget deficit.  The fund (known as First Things First) currently has $325 million on hand and collects approximately $200 million annually from taxes on tobacco.

Karl Rove + New York Times (Update 2)

by | Nov 1, 2010 | News and Updates, Uncategorized

On Oct. 2 and Oct. 7, I wrote about Karl Rove’s U.S. Senate predictions and then juxtaposed his with the NY Times/Nate Silver model.

On Oct. 2, Rove had the Dems losing 10 seats, the GOP gaining six, and four as toss-ups.

I examined the four toss-ups using the NYT model.  Again, at that time (Oct. 2), the model predicted that the Dems would retain the majority in Senate with 51 seats to the GOP’s 49.

On Oct. 2, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D) had a 63% chance of winning, according to the NYT.  But on Oct. 7, John Raese moved to a 64% probability of winning, meaning if everything else remained the same, the Senate would be split 50-50.

What does the NYT say about those four toss-ups on the eve of the election?

Washington:
Oct. 2
Murray (D) – 50%
Rossi (R) – 47%
Probability Murray wins – 74%

Nov. 1
Murray – 52%
Rossi – 48%
Probability Murray wins – 84.7%

MURRAY IMPROVES BY 11%

Nevada:
Oct. 2
Reid (D) – 48%
Angle (R) – 48%
Probability Angle wins – 55%

Nov. 1
Reid – 47%
Angle – 50%
Probability Angle wins – 82%

ANGLE IMPROVES BY 27%

Illinois:
Oct. 2
Giannoulias (D) – 48%
Kirk (R) – 47%
Probability Kirk wins – 54%

Nov. 1
Giannoulias – 48%
Kirk – 49%
Probability Kirk wins – 61%

KIRK IMPROVES BY 7%

West Virginia:
Oct. 7
Manchin (D) – 48%
Raese (R) – 50%
Probability Raese wins – 64%

Nov. 1
Manchin – 50%
Raese – 47%
Probability Raese wins – 23%

MANCHIN FLIPS PROBABILITY, IMPROVES PROBABILITY BY 71%

If this holds, the Senate will be 51 – 49, in favor of the Democrats.

Let’s see how the model holds up.