The Capitol Light Rail Extension is on Track – To Be Another Boondoggle
The idea to extend light rail to the State Capitol has occupied the dusty shelves of bureaucratic transit plans for ages. Phoenix first floated it in their 2000 “Transit 2000” plan, their 2015 Transportation 2050 initiative, and the concept has taken up space in every MAG and regional planning cycle since 2004. The idea’s longevity is not a testament to how good ideas endure; rather how bureaucrats remain unaffected regardless of light rail’s failure; unwilling to change course despite low ridership, high costs, high crime, or changing travel patterns. The world changes but a transit plan apparently never dies.
In fact, it turns out it can’t be stopped from destroying the Capitol corridor even when lawmakers pass a law to stop it.
In 2023, Republican legislators negotiated Proposition 479, Maricopa County’s half cent sales tax for transportation, which included a clause prohibiting the use of any public resources for light rail coming within 150 feet of the State Capitol. The goal of the provision was to insulate lawmakers from the disruption and destruction caused by light rail. This neat trick of making the “Capitol Line” someone else’s problem would likely backfire.
Well, it turns out we were right, and what Phoenix has in store for the Capitol corridor is worse than anyone could have imagined.
The Light Rail Line no Neighborhood Wants
Following the 2023 law change that scuttled the “single track” rail loop around the capitol on Adams and Jefferson Street, most assumed that the transit agency would move the line north to Van Buren. That option seems to be shelved for the moment, largely due to the outcries from the small mom and pop shops that would have been decimated by the construction and reduction of the roadway from four lanes to two.
Now, bureaucrats are devising alternative alignments, all of which are just as disruptive and nonsensical as the next:
- One scheme would run the line north on 15th Avenue, west on Van Buren, then elevate at 17th Avenue to cross existing infrastructure.
- Another would push the line south on 15th, then west on Madison, then north on 19th with an elevated crossing beginning near Adams Street.
- Meanwhile, residents in the Woodland Historic District warn that at least one variant would require razing historic houses.
The Capitol Line Will Be the Most Expensive Rail Yet
If there is one thing light is good at, it’s burning through taxpayer cash. By 2023, the Capitol Line had already cost taxpayers $20 Million in just planning and consultant costs for the scuttled Washington street route. Millions more is now being set on fire to identify an alternative route that no one wants.
But if Phoenix is successful in forcing this project to the construction phase, the real red ink will start bleeding.
When Phoenix built its first rail line 20 years ago, the price tag at the time was $75 million per mile. In 2020, construction on the the South-Central extension began, which will end up costing $1.4 billion, more than triple the original estimate. That’s a staggering $250 million per mile.
But taxpayers should expect the Capitol Loop to make the South-Central line look affordable. Current estimates have the project coming in at $499 million, or $350 Million per mile! And this assumes it doesn’t go over budget, which it most certainly will.
And when it’s finally built, don’t expect the paltry passengers to pick up the tab. Valley Metro recovery from fares for operating light rail was a dim 7.6% in FY 2024. Meaning over 90% of the significant operational costs are covered by the vast majority of people who don’t and will never ride it. Given how poorly previous Valley Metro projections have been, it’s fair to assume the Capitol Line isn’t going to be too crowded either, locking taxpayers into permanent operating subsidies on top of the enormous upfront capital bill.
And Who Will Ride the Train?
Which goes to the heart of the question. Who are we even building this route for? Light rail ridership in Phoenix has been on a steady decline since peaking in 2014. By 2019, that number had already fallen below 40,000, and in the years since COVID, weekday boardings have hovered around 25,000–30,000. And since boardings only represent one person getting on and off (not round trip), actual ridership is half that amount.
The result is we are spending billions, destroying neighborhoods and businesses, and increasing traffic congestion for a transit option that is being used by less than 1% of all commuters in the Phoenix metro area.
Remote work, telecommuting, and changing travel habits, especially after COVID, likely mean transit ridership in general—let alone light rail—will never come back to pre-2014 levels. Sprinkle in the crime statistics and the recent and high-profile violent murders taking place in urban America and who can expect light rail’s popularity to rise? Even despite Valley Metro’s best propaganda to convince people they hate their cars.
Time for the Legislature to Step Up
This project persists not because it makes sense, but because bureaucratic inertia is stronger than common sense. Lawmakers tried to sidestep the problem in 2023 by shielding their own backyard but leaving the project itself alive. That was a mistake. The Capitol Extension is a more than half-billion-dollar boondoggle in search of riders, that will destroy properties, inconvenience drivers, and suck the pocketbooks of taxpayers dry.
The Legislature should come back and do what it should have done in the first place: ban the Capitol Extension outright. Redirect our money toward projects that actually reduce congestion and serve commuters. The alternative is to watch hundreds of millions evaporate on a short, slow train to nowhere.
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