Though most attention was directed at the top of the ticket in the 2024 election, many groups on the Left waged high stakes on flipping Arizona’s barely Republican-controlled legislature.
In the two years since the 2022 election, when Republicans dwindled to 31 members of the 60-member House and 16 members in the 30-member Senate, Democrats have been busily planning and building their election takeover. After sweeping the top 3 statewide offices, including the Governorship, 2024 was the inflection point in the story of how Arizona went from red – to purple – to blue.
But that didn’t happen.
Under the leadership of Governor Hobbs and an orbit of well-funded organizations that raised upwards of $10 million to target key swing districts in Arizona, the Left failed to secure their legislative victories. Instead, the Republican-controlled Arizona House and Senate, in fact, expanded their majorities. Despite being outspent in every single race, Republicans now hold 33 members in the House and 17 members in the Senate, a small but meaningful gain. It’s a disaster for Katie Hobbs, who is already fighting low favorability and criticism by her own party for her inability to best Republican legislative leadership and rack up any wins for the Left’s agenda.
But Hobbs’ rivals certainly can’t blame only Hobbs for their election woes. Issues of public safety, the crisis at the border, and unaffordability and inflation consistently ranked at the top as concerns for voters. And at the end of the day, voters believed Republicans have more grown up and responsible solutions to these problems. In stark contrast is what Democrats were offering: ideas Arizonans have watched ruin our neighbors to the West.
Efforts to educate Arizonans about the real looming threats of allowing the state to fall prey to California policies have made their impact. When Arizonans learn how for years Democrats in the state have pushed to make Arizona a “sanctuary state,” to hand out benefits and driver’s licenses to illegals, to legalize squatting and homeless, to make it impossible to lower taxes, to eliminate school choice, and to create a slew of “climate crimes,” it is no wonder why they would make their bet on a generic Republican lawmaker. The legislative victories in 2024 make it clear that Arizona does NOT want to be California, and Democrats offer only Californication.
This shift to the Right in down ticket races is undergirded by a reddening of the state in general in the last two years, as Republicans have grown their state-wide registration advantage to 8.8%, the largest margin since 2012. These trends are not easily reversed and present an even bigger challenge ahead for the Left, who will need to devote ample resources to securing the Governor’s office in 2026 on top of their legislative ambitions.
Meanwhile, Republicans have mostly resolved their interparty squabbles for now, united under the Trump-mandate, and bolstered by the voter affirmation of their ideas on the economy, the border, and a saner culture.
The new majorities should keep these lessons in mind as they continue to hold the line against the advancement of the Hobbs Agenda and continue to ride the red wave into 2026.
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