For years, the Left has been working tirelessly to flip Arizona blue. Armed with a secret network of tax-advantaged funds, political nonprofits, and union dollars, their aim has been to turn our beloved, freedom-loving state into the next Colorado or California. In fact, many groups on the Left waged high stakes to flip Republicans’ paper-thin control of the state legislature in 2024.
And how did that turn out? A historic landslide victory for President Trump while the Left actually lost ground in Arizona’s legislature. Apparently funneling millions of dollars to liberal causes doesn’t make up for bad ideas.
Now, with the 2026 midterm election a little over nine months away, the latest voter registration numbers are in, and they show an encouraging trend. Republicans have expanded their registration advantage over Democrats to 7.64%—the largest lead in state history—while Democrats continue their free fall in party registration.
Even more impressive is that these gains are not isolated to a few particular areas of our state. Every single county in Arizona has become MORE Republican since the 2024 election. That’s right. In the counties where Democrats have larger voter registration numbers than Republicans, the gap has closed. And in counties where Republicans have larger voter registration numbers than Democrats, the gap has widened. In fact, the gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in Maricopa County has increased by more than half a percent in just the past year.
Yet perhaps the most surprising trend behind this growing Republican advantage is that while Republicans have been able to register a lot of new voters, the same cannot be said for the Democrats. As of today, Democrats have fewer registered voters in Arizona than they had six years ago! And this occurred at a time when Arizona’s population grew by nearly 500,000 residents. That’s the price you pay when your party continues to push unpopular ideas like the Green New Scam all while featuring a scandal-plagued governor who vetoes $1.1 billion in tax relief.
All of this is good news for Republicans who enjoy a voter registration gap that’s now 3.5% larger than the last midterm election in 2022 when that advantage stood at 4.06%. But here’s the thing. These voter registration numbers are moot if Republicans fail to show up in November.
While there has been a lot of discussion about election malfeasance and fraud in 2022, one of the most overlooked issues has been that Republicans grossly underperformed in turnout. In fact, Republican turnout in 2022 was lower than it was in the 2018 midterms.
That can’t happen this year.
Right now, Arizona has an attorney general in Kris Mayes who has suggested that people can shoot ICE officers because of stand your ground laws. We have a secretary of state in Adrian Fontes who continues to prove that the only thing he’s good at is losing in court. And we have a governor under active criminal investigation for a massive pay-to-play scheme with our tax dollars who wants to end school choice, increase government spending, veto bills that lower taxes, and more. Since she took office, she’s led Arizona from 4th in the nation in job growth all the way down to 47th. She’s vetoed parental rights bills, 2nd Amendment bills, water legislation, and more. And her fiscal mismanagement has turned a $2.5 billion surplus into a $1.4 billion deficit. In the meantime, Republicans continue to fight for educational freedom, address affordability, and put money back into the pockets of the people.
That’s the right side of history, but it won’t be if we don’t show up.
The goal for 2026 should be a presidential election level turnout, which would all but ensure Republican victories up and down the ticket. And if that happens, we can send Mayes, Hobbs, and Fontes packing for good. Maybe they can find a nice, overpriced home in California.
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This past November was a good time to be a Republican, especially here in Arizona. Not only did President Donald Trump win our state in a landslide victory, but Republicans expanded their majorities in both the Arizona House and Senate—despite being outspent in every single race.
While this turn of events shocked many in the corporate media who were convinced that Arizona was on its way from being a purple state to a blue state, we knew that voter registration trends told a different story.
Over the last couple of years, the gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in Arizona widened from 3.04% in 2020 to 4.03% in 2022. By April of last year, it had increased to 5.77%. And by November, it had expanded to 6.77%, a registration increase that proved decisive in President Trump’s overwhelming victory.
Now, 5 months removed from their electoral wipeout in November, there has been a lot of discussion about whether the Democrats’ political fortunes in Arizona would be reversing after their blowout loss to Trump.
Unfortunately for them, the latest voter registration numbers poured plenty of cold water on those dreams.
Maricopa County Slipping Away from the Democrats
If Democrats want any shot of controlling the legislature or winning statewide offices in Arizona, they need to flip Maricopa County blue. Yet that can’t happen when they keep losing the voter registration battle.
As you can see in the graph below, the gap between registered Republicans and Democrats in Maricopa County has increased from 85,000 in April 2020 to 191,000 in April 2025. That’s right, Republicans have more than doubled their registration advantage over Democrats!
These registration trendlines are consistent with the statewide figures that show Republicans doubling their registration advantage in that same timeframe. In fact, Arizona is more red from a voter registration advantage standpoint than at any point in the last 75 years! But that may not even be the worst news for Democrats.
If you look closely at the graph above, you’ll see something interesting. There are now fewer registered Democrats in Maricopa County than there were five years ago. And this has come during a time when the population in Maricopa County has grown by over 150,000 residents. (See here and here.)
Note to Democrats…that’s not how this is supposed to work. As the population grows, you would think your raw numbers of voter registrations would increase as well. But maybe, just maybe, it’s your woke policies that are the problem.
President Trump Brings Early Successes While Governor Hobbs Becomes a Bigger Embarrassment
In less than 100 days in office, President Trump has been hard at work executing his mandate from the American people. Along with issuing a torrent of Executive Orders that have unleashed fossil fuel production in America, he rolled back the Green New Deal climate cult fantasy, ended DEI and other race-based hiring and employment practices, and has been taking a sledgehammer to the administrative state by allowing Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to identify and eliminate billions in wasteful spending.
On top of this, President Trump issued an executive order announcing his intention to enforce the citizenship requirement for federal elections. His Department of Justice (DOJ) then followed that up by ceasing a legal challenge that began under the Biden administration against Arizona’s proof of citizenship laws. And his EPA recently announced that it will no longer penalize our state—as the Biden administration had been attempting—for foreign air pollution.
In the meantime, let’s check in on Arizona’s chief executive.
So far this year, Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs has vetoed a popular bill aimed to deliver same-day elections results to our state. She vetoed a bipartisan bill that looked to provide affordable and reliable utilities to Arizonans. And to prove that she’s a total embarrassment (and a fraud) to the people of Arizona, she diverted hundreds of millions of dollars for an unauthorized program that has blown a hole in our state’s budget.
With all this incompetence, it’s no wonder why Democrats continue to see a steady decline in voter registrations with no surge of support. But Republicans can’t be satisfied. As the numbers continue to show Arizona as a firmly red state once again, we must build on this momentum with unity, hard work, and good policy.
Help Protect Freedom in Arizona by Joining Our Grassroots Network
Arizona needs to have a unified voice promoting economic freedom and prosperity, and the Free Enterprise Club is committed to making that happen. But we can’t do it alone. We need YOU!
Join our FREE Grassroots Action List to stay up to date on the latest battles against big government and how YOU can help influence crucial bills at the Arizona State Legislature.
Everyone knows that political pundits, social media influencers, and the corporate media love a good narrative. And one of their favorites for years has been the claim that Arizona is trending blue—that a demographic shift toward Democrats is inevitable.
This ‘conventional wisdom’ is repeated so often that much of the Republican political class in the state has accepted it as fact. Some are even advising candidates that the only path forward for Republicans is to abandon their conservative principles, embrace center-left policy solutions, and settle for a future of divided government.
But a funny thing about narratives and conventional wisdom: numbers don’t lie, especially those showing party preference when people are registering to vote.
Last month, the Secretary of State updated the statewide voter registration data prior to the Presidential Preference Election. The latest figures show that Republicans are once again the largest voting bloc in Arizona, surpassing Independents by nearly 40,000. This is certainly an important development—especially given all the attention it received on social media when Independent registrations surpassed Republicans last year.
But that’s not the most significant voter registration trend. It’s the one that could spell doom for the Democratic party in our state’s upcoming election.
The Data Shows a Widening Gap Between Registered Republicans and Democrats
According to the Secretary of State’s recent report, the voter registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is now 5.77%, with approximately 236,000 more people registered as Republican than Democrat.
How significant is this?
On Election Day in 2022, the gap between Republicans and Democrats was 4.03%—or about 166,000 more Republicans than Democrats. And on Election Day in 2020, the gap was only 3.04%—or about 130,000 more Republicans than Democrats.
This means that in less than four years, the percentage gap between Democrats and Republicans has nearly doubled, and in raw numbers went from 130,000 to 236,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the state!
At first glance, this already looks impressive, but the registration numbers from the last decade show an even greater long-term trend. Based on the data from the Secretary of State, the gap between registered Republicans and registered Democrats is stronger today than at any point in the last 10 years! (See graph above and chart below)
So, despite the ‘conventional wisdom’ of the political class, there is no evidence that Arizona is trending blue. In fact, the registration numbers suggest the opposite. Now, Republicans look to be positioning themselves in 2024 to look a lot more like the 2014 and 2016 elections that featured a massive red wave and the election of President Donald Trump.
And while the last three elections may have been razor thin close, a combination of ridiculous Democrat policies—along with critical Republican successes—are setting up the opportunity for Republicans to have a big year.
Democrats Are Hemorrhaging Support Due to Absurd Policy Positions
One thing these voter registration numbers tell us is that people are seeing just how crazy Democrats are on the issues. We can start with the current border crisis where the Biden administration has abandoned its constitutional duty, and Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs has done everything she can to pretend it doesn’t exist. In the meantime, we’ve seen a dramatic rise in the number of “gotaways,” a surge of illegal immigrants in the Tucson Border Sector, and an increase in cartel violence—to name just a few of the problems.
Then, there’s our schools where Critical Race Theory and radical gender theory have been spreading like wildfire—especially over the past four years. In the Scottsdale Unified School District, we’ve seen administrators encourage students to replace their “deadname”—the name that individuals reject upon transitioning genders—with their preferred name on their school ID. In Phoenix, a sixth grade teacher was recorded teaching her students about gender identity and not trusting their parents on the subject. And a Tucson High School held its first annual drag show in May 2022, weeks before one of the counselors who organized the event was arrested for having a sexual relationship with a 15-year-old girl.
On top of all this, the Left continues to push preposterous bans on gas stoves and gas cars while now trying to adopt taxes on our vehicle miles traveled as inflation eats away at the average citizen. Meanwhile, the only thing Katie Hobbs seems to be able to accomplish is breaking the record for most vetoes in a legislative session and massively growing the size of the state government.
Republican Successes Have Created Great Momentum
People want to live in a state that’s free. That’s why Arizona’s Republican leadership has made it a top priority—especially in the last four years—to ensure that our freedoms are both protected and expanded.
During COVID, our state’s response put it ahead of most other states in the country. While we certainly weren’t immune from restrictions, Arizona remained open as blue states like California, New York, and the aforementioned Michigan continued with extreme lockdowns and other measures that crushed their state’s economies.
Then, in July 2021, Republicans delivered historic tax cuts for all Arizona taxpayers, giving them some much-needed relief from rising inflation. But they didn’t stop there. With gas, grocery, housing, and energy prices climbing under the Biden administration, Republicans also included tax relief for Arizona’s families in last year’s state budget.
Along with this, conservatives got to work on passing a law that both saves taxpayers money and provides universal school choice for every single child in the state. Upon the launch of the expanded Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESA), the program was so popular that the ESA website became overwhelmed by the large number of families looking to escape the woke agenda in our union-backed public schools.
Now, the latest voter registration numbers are demonstrating that these policies have resonated with the electorate in Arizona while attracting even more conservatives to our state. That’s probably why Democrats have been so frantic trying to repeal school choice and falsely blame our historic tax cuts for the budget shortfall. They are worried that it will be game over for them if these structure reforms stand.
It’s also important to note that none of this guarantees electoral success for Republicans. A registration advantage is like a head start in a race. Great to have but means nothing if the GOP doesn’t work hard to unify around a conservative platform, conduct a robust GOTV program, and support their general election candidates. Poor voter turnout and infighting within the party cost Republicans several races throughout the state in 2022.
But the overall political trend lines are clear. Arizona’s freedom-focused policies have laid a foundation for us to be a red state. Now, we need to use this momentum, build on it, and ensure that we become an even more red state for years to come.
Help Protect Freedom in Arizona by Joining Our Grassroots Network
Arizona needs to have a unified voice promoting economic freedom and prosperity, and the Free Enterprise Club is committed to making that happen. But we can’t do it alone. We need YOU!
Join our FREE Grassroots Action List to stay up to date on the latest battles against big government and how YOU can help influence crucial bills at the Arizona State Legislature.
When all else fails, cry racism. That seems to be the playbook the Far-Left utilizes any time it can’t make a coherent argument against election integrity laws. And here we are once again. The latest accusations of racism come amidst a series of depositions along with closing arguments in a lawsuit filed by a cabal of liberal organizations against two commonsense voter registration laws: HB 2243 and HB 2492.
Passed in 2022 and signed by then-Governor Ducey, HB 2243 ensures that only eligible voters remain registered by requiring regular voter roll maintenance. And so far, it has proven to be effective—revealing that over 78,000 individuals have been identified on Arizona’s voter rolls as either noncitizens or nonresidents. When you consider how close some of our state’s races were in 2022, these numbers should be great cause for alarm. But of course, many of those close races went in favor of Democrats, so the Left doesn’t want to ask too many questions.
HB 2492, which was also passed in 2022 and signed by then-Governor Ducey, bolsters safeguards to our voter registration process to require proof of citizenship ensuring that only U.S. citizens are voting in our elections. Where’s the controversy here? U.S. citizens cannot go into France, Australia, or any other country throughout the world and vote in their elections, so why should citizens from other countries be allowed to vote in our elections?
Not too long after both bills were signed into law, the Left filed a lawsuit against them and recently made a part of the proceedings about…the Arizona Free Enterprise Club (who is not a party in the lawsuit). That’s right. After apparently failing to construct sound legal arguments against HB 2243 and HB 2492, they have now embarked on a fishing expedition to harass the Club with ridiculous lawfare subpoenas. They spent countless hours deposing Senate President Warren Petersen and House Speaker Ben Toma in an effort to convince the judge that our organization was inappropriately exerting influence to pass both bills in a “racially-charged manner.” One Leftist group even submitted a claim complaining that the Free Enterprise Club is just too big and powerful and had an “outsized influence” on the process.
But contrary to the claims made by the Left, it was never a secret that the Club was involved in crafting and advocating for both bills. In fact, our role was out in the open, evident by the many articles we wrote on each bill (See here, here, here, and here for a sample.) On top of that, we testified in support of both bills at the legislature.
And after all this harassment, depositions, review of documents, and more, do you want to know what their “proof” is that these bills were racially motivated? In one of our articles, we used the word “Illegals” when explaining the need to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote. That’s it. That’s their big smoking gun.
The fact that these absurd racism charges have become a focal point of their lawsuit only demonstrates how weak the Left’s case is against these laws.
These Far-Left groups know that they can attacks us with lawfare subpoenas, allege that our policy and advocacy efforts at the legislature are somehow nefarious, and make despicable accusations that our activities are racially motivated (with no evidence) because we can’t defend ourselves. So rather than engaging on policy or legal merits, the Left once again resorts to impugning our organization, hoping that some of the mud it’s slinging will stick.
As we have stated all along, these commonsense and reasonable laws are strong and necessary in a nation where more and more people are losing trust in the U.S. election system. That’s why the Arizona legislature passed them. That’s why then-Governor Ducey signed them. And that’s why Arizona’s election system has improved and will continue to improve with these laws on the books.
Help Protect Freedom in Arizona by Joining Our Grassroots Network
Arizona needs to have a unified voice promoting economic freedom and prosperity, and the Free Enterprise Club is committed to making that happen. But we can’t do it alone. We need YOU!
Join our FREE Grassroots Action List to stay up to date on the latest battles against big government and how YOU can help influence crucial bills at the Arizona State Legislature.
The
fee was passed with all Democrats and a handful of Republicans, with
conservative Republicans getting rolled on the bill. Despite the claims that the fee would be $18,
the bill gave unilateral authority to the Department of Transportation to set
the tax, and when finally assessed the fee doubled at $32.
Senator
Michelle Ugenti-Rita (the main champion of the full repeal) sponsored Senate
Bill 1001, which sailed out of the senate with a 24-6 vote. Many of the lawmakers who supported the bill
last year have now backtracked on their vote.
Now
budget bills have been released which showed a 5-year phase out of the
tax. With Senator Ugenti-Rita holding
the line, the Governor’s office finally ceded to a 2-year phase out of the fee.
Unfortunately,
taxpayers won’t being seeing a refund of that $32. However, this is a tremendous win for
legislators and taxpayers! Not only were
they successful in getting a tax eliminated that should have never been passed
to begin with, but they are in the process of repealing some of the worst
public policy to ever pass out of the legislature.
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